In this article each week I’ll present 1) my personal spread projections for each game, 2) the bets against the spread (ATS) that I like and 3) the five games that — as of writing on Wednesday — I’m most likely to enter into the $1M DraftKings picks contest. On Sunday, I’ll tweet out my final five for the contest and embed that tweet here as an update.
All odds are from the following sportsbooks.
Click on the sportsbook links above to check out their promotional offers. If you’re not taking advantage of these deals, you’re basically admitting to yourself that you hate money.
Also check out our BettingPros matchups page, where you can see the percentage distributions of spread, over/under and moneyline bets tracked in the BettingPros App.
Freedman’s Week 3 Projections Against the Spread
Here are my personal spread projections for each Week 3 game, ordered according to when each game kicks off. The consensus lines are pulled from our BettingPros odds page on Wednesday and are presented — along with my projected lines and edges — from the perspective of the home team.
Note: I update my personal projections as well as our premium BettingPros spread projections throughout the week. These projections and odds are as of Wed., Sept. 21, 1 pm ET.
Home Team
Road Team
Consensus Line
Freedman Line
Projected Edge
IND
KC
6.5
5.25
-1.25
NE
BAL
3
-0.5
-3.5
MIA
BUF
5.5
5
-0.5
CHI
HOU
-3
-3.75
-0.75
CAR
NO
3
2.25
-0.75
MIN
DET
-6
-5
1
TEN
LV
2
-0.5
-2.5
NYJ
CIN
4.5
5.75
1.25
WAS
PHI
6.5
3.25
-3.25
LAC
JAX
-7
-9.5
-2.5
ARI
LAR
4
3.5
-0.5
SEA
ATL
-2
-2.75
-0.75
TB
GB
-2
-1.25
0.75
DEN
SF
1.5
-0.5
-2
NYG
DAL
-2.5
-1
1.5
Freedman’s Week 3 ATS Bet Breakdowns
Here are stats and notes for the games with spread bets I like right now.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
Check out our Ravens at Patriots matchup page.
Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
Location: Gillette Stadium
TV: FOX
Ravens at Patriots: Consensus Lines
Spread: Ravens -3
Over/Under: 43.5
Moneyline: Ravens -155, Patriots +135
Ravens at Patriots: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.
Spread: Patriots – 11% bets, 19% money
Over/Under: Under – 31% bets, 48% money
Moneyline: Patriots – 78% bets, 97% money
Ravens at Patriots: Key Injuries
Baltimore Ravens: Week 3 Injury Report
Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Calais Campbell
DE
NIR-Rest
DNP
Devin Duvernay
WR
Concussion
DNP
Justin Houston
OLB
NIR-Rest
DNP
Marlon Humphrey
CB
Groin
DNP
Marcus Peters
CB
NIR-Rest
DNP
J.K. Dobbins
RB
Knee
FP
Travis Jones
DT
Knee
FP
Lamar Jackson
QB
Right Elbow
LP
Isaiah Likely
TE
Groin
LP
James Proche
WR
Groin
LP
Ronnie Stanley
OT
Ankle
LP
Brandon Stephens
CB
Quad
LP
Damarion Williams
CB
Ankle
LP
Baltimore Ravens: IR, PUP & Out
EDGE Steven Means (Achilles, IR): OUT
CB Kyle Fuller (knee, IR): OUT
OT Ja’Wuan James (Achilles, IR): OUT
LB Vince Biegel (Achilles, IR): OUT
EDGE David Ojabo (Achilles, PUP): OUT
EDGE Tyus Bowser (Achilles, PUP): OUT
RB Gus Edwards (knee, PUP): OUT
Ravens Injury News
New England Patriots: Week 3 Injury Report
Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Kyle Dugger
S
Knee
DNP
Jakobi Meyers
WR
Knee
DNP
Joshuah Bledsoe
SAF
Groin
LP
Cody Davis
DB
Calf
LP
Davon Godchaux
NT
Back
LP
Raekwon McMillan
MLB
Thumb
LP
DaMarcus Mitchell
DE
Knee
LP
Adrian Phillips
DB
Ribs
LP
New England Patriots: IR, PUP & Out
RB Ty Montgomery (ankle, IR): OUT
WR Tyquan Thornton (shoulder, IR): OUT
EDGE Ronnie Perkins (undisclosed, IR): OUT
CB Joejuan Williams (shoulder, IR): OUT
Patriots Injury News
Ravens at Patriots: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Baltimore Ravens Trends
HC John Harbaugh: 59-48-6 ATS (8.4% ROI) on road
QB Lamar Jackson: 16-9 ATS (26.5% ROI) on road
New England Patriots Trends
HC Bill Belichick: 29-24-1 ATS (7.9% ROI) without QB Tom Brady
HC Bill Belichick: 30-16-2 ATS (26.8% ROI) as underdog
HC Bill Belichick: 25-23 ML (33.5% ROI) as underdog
HC Bill Belichick: 5-1-1 ATS (54.1% ROI) vs. Ravens HC John Harbaugh
HC Bill Belichick: 5-2 ML (49.3% ROI) vs. Ravens HC John Harbaugh
Ravens at Patriots: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Ravens Offense vs. Patriots Defense: 2022
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.17
6
-0.015
11
5
Total SR
43.8%
17
45.7%
21
4
Total DVOA
31.9%
1
-5.3%
11
10
Ravens Offense vs. Patriots Defense: 2021
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.009
19
-0.063
4
-15
Total SR
46.4%
10
42.5%
7
-3
Total DVOA
1.7%
17
-12.8%
4
-13
Patriots Offense vs. Ravens Defense: 2022
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.033
17
0.103
26
9
Total SR
47.5%
9
45.2%
17
8
Total DVOA
7.4%
11
9.9%
21
10
Patriots Offense vs. Ravens Defense: 2021
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.07
10
0.078
27
17
Total SR
48.6%
4
43.2%
11
7
Total DVOA
10.5%
9
9.3%
28
19
Ravens at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 32 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Lamar Jackson
EPA + CPOE: 0.180 (No. 5)
AY/A: 10.3 (No. 1)
QBR: 76.5 (No. 4)
ATS Value vs. Average: 2.3 (No. 6)
2021: Lamar Jackson
EPA + CPOE: 0.084 (No. 20)
AY/A: 6.9 (No. 18)
QBR: 56.8 (No. 17)
ATS Value vs. Average: 0.4 (No. 14)
Career: Lamar Jackson
AY/A: 7.8
QB Elo per Game: 82.1
2022: Mac Jones
EPA + CPOE: 0.058 (No. 14)
AY/A: 6.4 (No. 19)
QBR: 32.0 (No. 26)
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.1 (No. 17)
2021: Mac Jones
EPA + CPOE: 0.114 (No. 12)
AY/A: 7.0 (No. 16)
QBR: 56.9 (No. 16)
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.7 (No. 21)
Career: Mac Jones
AY/A: 6.9
QB Elo per Game: -14.6
Key Matchup: Patriots Run Defense vs. Ravens Run Offense
Even though this year the Ravens are “only” No. 11 with a 43.0% rush rate, they are a running team at their core. That’s what happens when you have QB Lamar Jackson (a ground attack cheat code) and OC Greg Roman (a run game coordinator by trade).
In trading away No. 1 WR Marquise Brown this offseason and replacing him in the draft with two tight ends (instead of wide receivers), the Ravens signaled that they want to return to their 2019 run-heavy ways.
But they could struggle to run against the Patriots. No. 1 RB J.K. Dobbins (knee) is yet to return from last year’s season-ending injury. No. 2 RB Gus Edwards (knee, PUP) is out. Backup RBs Kenyon Drake (17-39-0 rushing) and Mike Davis (7-15-0) have been pedestrian injury fill-ins.
Additionally, starting LT Ronnie Stanley (ankle) is yet to play this year after appearing in just one game last year and six games the year before that. And backup LT Ja’Wuan James (Achilles, IR) is out.
With all these injuries, the Ravens offense has been predictably terrible on the ground this year, and the Patriots defense has been average at worst.
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
Rush EPA
-0.264
29
-0.046
17
-12
Rush SR
27.9%
31
48.8%
27
-4
Rush DVOA
-43.5%
32
-6.3%
17
-15
Adj. Line Yards
3.04
31
3.73
8
-23
Yards per Play
7
1
4.7
6
5
Points per Game
31
4
17
8
4
As a result, the Patriots defense has been a top-five unit in yards per play and points game through two games — just like the Ravens offense.
If the Patriots keep the Ravens in check on the ground, that could force them into a heavy reliance on the passing game, and while the Ravens have had success in the air this year (No. 1 in pass DVOA, 103.8%) it’s never a positive development to become one dimensional against a Belichick defense.
Plus, the Ravens have had fortuitous matchups to open the year, facing the bottom-two defenses in pass DVOA in Weeks 1-2.
Jets (Week 1): 55.4% (No. 32)
Dolphins (Week 2): 48.2% (No. 31)
I’m skeptical that the Ravens pass offense is as good as it has recently looked — and if their run offense struggles in Week 3 then they could have an underwhelming performance overall.
In the preseason market, this number was a pick’em. Not that much has changed between then and now.
Best Line: Patriots +3 (+100, Caesars)
First Recommended: Patriot +3 (-108)
Personal Projection: Patriots -0.5
Limit: Patriots +2
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
Las Vegas Raiders at Tennessee Titans
Check out our Raiders at Titans matchup page.
Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
Location: Nissan Stadium
TV: FOX
Raiders at Titans: Consensus Lines
Spread: Raiders -2
Over/Under: 45.5
Moneyline: Raiders -129, Titans +110
Raiders at Titans: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.
Spread: Raiders – 41% bets, 44% money
Over/Under: Under – 45% bets, 91% money
Moneyline: Raiders – 36% bets, 57% money
Raiders at Titans: Key Injuries
Las Vegas Raiders: Week 3 Injury Report
Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Andre James
C
Concussion
DNP
Chandler Jones
DE
NIR-rest
DNP
Tre’von Moehrig
FS
Hip
DNP
Bilal Nichols
DT
Shoulder
DNP
Denzel Perryman
MLB
Ankle
DNP
Hunter Renfrow
WR
Concussion
DNP
Brandon Bolden
RB
Hamstring
LP
Jermaine Eluemunor
OT
Hip
LP
Neil Farrell
DE
Shoulder
LP
Las Vegas Raiders: IR, PUP & Out
CB Anthony Averett (thumb, IR): OUT
RT Brandon Parker (triceps, IR): OUT
EDGE Jordan Jenkins (knee, IR): OUT
LB Micah Kiser (leg, IR): OUT
Raiders Injury News
Tennessee Titans: Week 3 Injury Report
Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Ugo Amadi
SAF
Ankle
DNP
Bud Dupree
OLB
Hip
DNP
Jamarco Jones
OT
Triceps
DNP
Taylor Lewan
OT
Knee
DNP
Ola Adeniyi
OLB
Neck
LP
Denico Autry
DT
Not Injury Related
LP
Treylon Burks
WR
Ankle
LP
Kristian Fulton
CB
Hamstring
LP
Dontrell Hilliard
RB
Hamstring
LP
Joe Jones
LB
Hamstring
LP
Kyle Philips
WR
Shoulder
LP
Tennessee Titans: IR, PUP & Out
EDGE Harold Landry (knee, IR): OUT
CB Elijah Molden (groin, IR): OUT
LB Monty Rice (ankle, IR): OUT
RB Trenton Cannon (knee, IR): OUT
LT Taylor Lewan (knee): DNP on Wed., feared OUT for year
Titans Injury News
Raiders at Titans: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Las Vegas Raiders Trends
QB Derek Carr: 13-24-1 ATS (25.2% ROI for faders) as favorite
QB Derek Carr: 1-7-1 ATS (60.9% ROI for faders) as favorite vs. playoff team
Tennessee Titans Trends
HC Mike Vrabel: 18-12 ATS (15.3% ROI) as underdog
HC Mike Vrabel: 8-4 ATS (27.7% ROI) as home underdog
HC Mike Vrabel: 5-1-1 ATS (54.2% ROI) off back-to-back losses
Raiders at Titans: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Raiders Offense vs. Titans Defense: 2022
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.083
22
0.141
27
5
Total SR
43.9%
16
45.6%
19
3
Total DVOA
-16.0%
24
17.9%
29
5
Raiders Offense vs. Titans Defense: 2021
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.001
20
-0.018
10
-10
Total SR
45.2%
13
42.6%
8
-5
Total DVOA
-3.4%
19
-2.3%
12
-7
Titans Offense vs. Raiders Defense: 2022
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.153
31
0.065
23
-8
Total SR
42.5%
19
48.0%
30
11
Total DVOA
-19.2%
29
0.8%
15
-14
Titans Offense vs. Raiders Defense: 2021
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.025
15
0.061
25
10
Total SR
44.7%
15
44.5%
15
0
Total DVOA
-4.2%
20
0.6%
17
-3
Ravens at Patriots: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 32 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Derek Carr
EPA + CPOE: 0.038 (No. 20)
AY/A: 6.5 (No. 17)
QBR: 40.6 (No. 21)
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.3 (No. 19)
2021: Derek Carr
EPA + CPOE: 0.105 (No. 16)
AY/A: 7.4 (No. 12)
QBR: 58.4 (No. 14)
ATS Value vs. Average: 0.0 (No. 16)
Career: Derek Carr
AY/A: 7.1
QB Elo per Game: 14.0
2022: Ryan Tannehill
EPA + CPOE: 0.042 (No. 18)
AY/A: 6.3 (No. 20)
QBR: 48.3 (No. 17)
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.6 (No. 22)
2021: Ryan Tannehill
EPA + CPOE: 0.113 (No. 13)
AY/A: 6.6 (No. 20)
QBR: 61.8 (No. 8)
ATS Value vs. Average: 0.1 (No. 15)
Career: Ryan Tannehill
AY/A: 7.1
QB Elo per Game: -4.6
Key Matchup: Titans Pass Rush vs. Raiders Pass Blocking
Even without EDGE Harold Landry (knee, IR), the Titans defensive line has a marked advantage over the Raiders offensive line in our FantasyPros unit power rankings.
Rank
Defensive Line
Opp OL
OL Rank
Edge
13
TEN
LV
30
17
Specifically, the Titans this year have exceled at rushing the quarterback, and the Raiders have struggled most in pass protection.
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
Adj. Sack Rate
8.6%
25
9.5%
6
-19
If C Andre James (concussion) misses another game, I think the right side of the offensive line will be especially vulnerable. In his absence last week, rookie RG Dylan Parham shifted to center, and undrafted fourth-year backup Lester Cotton got his first NFL start filling in at right guard. Second-Team All-Pro DT Jeffery Simmons (8.5 sacks last year) could wreak havoc against those two.
And on the end of the line is RT Jermaine Eluemunor, a journeyman backup who has played most of his snaps at guard. He will likely be outmatched by EDGEs Denico Autry and Bud Dupree (hip, assuming Dupree plays).
This line was Titans -1.75 in the preseason market. Yeah, the Titans are 0-2 — but so are the Raiders.
Best Line: Titans +2.5 (-110, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Titans +2.5 (-110)
Personal Projection: Titans -0.5
Limit: Titans +2
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders
Check out our Eagles at Commanders matchup page.
Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 1 pm ET
Location: FedExField
TV: FOX
Eagles at Commanders: Consensus Lines
Spread: Eagles -6.5
Over/Under: 47.5
Moneyline: Eagles -278, Commanders +240
Eagles at Commanders: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.
Spread: Eagles – 55% bets, 58% money
Over/Under: Under – 51% bets, 81% money
Moneyline: Eagles – 67% bets, 67% money
Eagles at Commanders: Key Injuries
Philadelphia Eagles: Week 3 Injury Report
Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Quez Watkins
WR
Illness
DNP
Avonte Maddox
CB
Back
LP
Haason Reddick
OLB
Knee
LP
Philadelphia Eagles: IR, PUP & Out
EDGE Derek Barnett (knee, IR): OUT
OT Andre Dillard (arm, IR): OUT
OL Brett Toth (knee, PUP): OUT
TE Tyree Jackson (knee, PUP): OUT
Eagles Injury News
Washington Commanders: Week 3 Injury Report
Player
Position
Injury
Wed
Shaka Toney
DE
Illness
DNP
Casey Toohill
DE
Concussion
DNP
Daniel Wise
DT
Ankle
DNP
Saahdiq Charles
OT
Shoulder
LP
Cole Holcomb
LB
Quad
LP
Trai Turner
G
Quad
LP
Washington Commanders: IR, PUP & Out
EDGE Chase Young (knee, PUP): OUT
C Chase Roullier (knee, IR): OUT
C Tyler Larsen (Achilles, PUP): OUT
RB Brian Robinson (leg, PUP): OUT
DT Phidarian Mathis (knee, IR): OUT
Commanders Injury News
Eagles at Commanders: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Philadelphia Eagles Trends
HC Nick Sirianni: 1-4-1 ATS (44.4% ROI) in division
Washington Commanders Trends
Divisional Underdogs: 205-146-11 ATS (13.8% ROI) in Weeks 1-4
Divisional Underdogs: 140-100-6 ATS (13.2% ROI) vs. team with two-game win streak
Divisional Underdogs: 24-10-2 ATS (36.1% ROI) vs. team with two-game win streak in Weeks 1-4
Eagles at Commanders: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Eagles Offense vs. Commanders Defense: 2022
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.212
4
0.068
24
20
Total SR
50.0%
4
43.0%
12
8
Total DVOA
27.3%
5
16.2%
28
23
Eagles Offense vs. Commanders Defense: 2021
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.061
12
0.08
28
16
Total SR
46.4%
10
45.1%
18
8
Total DVOA
8.1%
11
5.8%
27
16
Commanders Offense vs. Eagles Defense: 2022
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.069
10
-0.028
9
-1
Total SR
41.7%
22
45.7%
21
-1
Total DVOA
-0.1%
15
-9.6%
9
-6
Commanders Offense vs. Eagles Defense: 2021
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.036
21
0.009
17
-4
Total SR
44.8%
14
46.2%
22
8
Total DVOA
-5.3%
21
4.7%
25
4
Eagles at Commanders: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 32 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Jalen Hurts
EPA + CPOE: 0.154 (No. 7)
AY/A: 8.7 (No. 5)
QBR: 70.8 (No. 7)
ATS Value vs. Average: 1.7 (No. 7)
2021: Jalen Hurts
EPA + CPOE: 0.088 (No. 18)
AY/A: 7.1 (No. 15)
QBR: 54.6 (No. 19)
ATS Value vs. Average: 0.5 (No. 12)
Career: Jalen Hurts
AY/A: 7.2
QB Elo per Game: 48.0
2022: Carson Wentz
EPA + CPOE: 0.112 (No. 11)
AY/A: 7.5 (No. 9)
QBR: 51.7 (No. 14)
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.2 (No. 18)
2021: Carson Wentz
EPA + CPOE: 0.070 (No. 22)
AY/A: 7.3 (No. 13)
QBR: 60.6 (No. 9)
ATS Value vs. Average: -1.6 (No. 35)
Career: Carson Wentz
AY/A: 6.9
QB Elo per Game: -2.2
Key Matchup: Commanders Interior Offensive Line vs. Eagles DTs Fletcher Cox & Javon Hargrave
If QB Carson Wentz is to exorcise his demons in this #RevengeGame against his former team, the interior of his offensive line will need to play well.
C Chase Roullier (knee, IR) is out, as is backup C Tyler Larsen (Achilles, PUP). And missing from last year’s starting unit are LG Ereck Flowers (released) and RG Brandon Scherff (free agency). So in Week 3 the Commanders will have three new year-over-year starters on the interior of their line, and this exact trio has never played together as a unit.
Given the situation, this looks like an excellent setup for DTs Fletcher Cox and Javon Hargrave.
Even so, I think the Commanders will perform adequately on their interior offensive line. RG Wes Schweitzer will shift to center, and he has made 19 starts in the interior for the Commanders since 2020: He knows the system. Replacing Schweitzer at right guard will be backup Trai Turner — a Pro-Bowler for HC Ron Rivera and OC Scott Turner from their time together with the Panthers. And although LG Andrew Norwell is new to the team, he is another Panthers transplant and was an All-Pro in 2017. He and Turner manned the interior of the Panthers offensive line together for four years (2014-17).
Even with injury issues and new starters, this is not a patchworked interior. It has decent continuity — and Schweitzer, Turner and Norwell could be significant drivers of success for the Commanders.
Without EDGE Derek Barnett (knee, IR), the Eagles defense is just No. 27 in adjusted sack rate (3.7%) through two games. If Schweitzer, Turner and Norwell are competent, they might be able to keep Wentz clean in the pocket.
And despite the offseason additions of DT Jordan Davis (draft), EDGE Haason Reddick (free agency) and LBs Kyzir White (free agency) and Nakobe Dean (draft), the Eagles are still bottom-five in run defense in every key metric.
Rush EPA: 0.204 (No. 32)
Rush SR: 50.0% (No. 28)
Rush DVOA: 23.1% (No. 29)
Adj. Line Yards: 5.56 (No. 29)
If Schweitzer, Turner and Norwell are able to hold their own against Cox and Hargrave in run blocking, the Commanders could use the rushing game to extend drives, grind down the clock, keep the explosive Eagles offense on the sideline — and keep the game close.
This line was -1 in the preseason and -3 in the lookahead market last Thursday. The -6.5 we see in the market now is an overreaction to the Eagles’ 2-0 start and their 24-7 Week 2 win against the Vikings on Monday Night Football.
Best Line: Commanders +6.5 (-105, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Commanders +6.5 (-105)
Personal Projection: Commanders +3.25
Limit: Commanders +5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers
Check out our Jaguars at Chargers matchup page.
Kickoff: Sunday, Sept. 25, 2022, 4:05 pm ET
Location: SoFi Stadium
TV: CBS
Jaguars at Chargers: Consensus Lines
Spread: Chargers -7
Over/Under: 47.5
Moneyline: Chargers -315, Jaguars +265
Jaguars at Chargers: Betting Percentages
Data from Action Network and as of Sept. 21.
Spread: Jaguars – 48% bets, 94% money
Over/Under: Under – 46% bets, 87% money
Moneyline: Jaguars – 6% bets, 36% money
Jaguars at Chargers: Key Injuries
Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 3 Injury Report
No injuries.
Jacksonville Jaguars: IR, PUP & Out
EDGE Jordan Smith (knee, IR): OUT
Jaguars Injury News
Los Angeles Chargers: Week 3 Injury Report
Player
Position
Injury
Wed
J.C. Jackson
DB
Ankle
DNP
Corey Linsley
C
Knee
DNP
Keenan Allen
WR
Hamstring
LP
Justin Herbert
QB
Ribs
LP
Donald Parham
TE
Hamstring
LP
Trey Pipkins
OT
Foot
LP
Los Angeles Chargers: IR, PUP & Out
DT Forrest Merrill (undisclosed, IR): OUT
Chargers Injury News
Jaguars at Chargers: Notable Trends
Data from Action Network and goes back to 2003. Abbreviations: Against the spread (ATS), return on investment (ROI), moneyline (ML).
Jacksonville Jaguars Trends
HC Doug Pederson: 15-25 ATS (21.4% ROI for faders) on road
East Coast Teams: 116-94-8 ATS (6.7% ROI) on West Coast for afternoon games
Los Angeles Chargers Trends
Home Favorites: 24-15-1 ATS (19.6% ROI) after a Thursday Night Football road loss
Jaguars at Chargers: Team Statistics
Advanced data from RBs Don’t Matter and Football Outsiders. Basic stats from Pro Football Reference. Regular season only. Abbreviations: Expected Points Added (EPA), Success Rate (SR), Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA).
Jaguars Offense vs. Chargers Defense: 2022
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.09
9
-0.015
11
2
Total SR
46.0%
12
44.1%
14
2
Total DVOA
18.6%
9
-14.3%
7
-2
Jaguars Offense vs. Chargers Defense: 2021
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
-0.079
28
0.044
24
-4
Total SR
44.0%
19
46.8%
27
8
Total DVOA
-15.1%
27
4.8%
26
-1
Chargers Offense vs. Jaguars Defense: 2022
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.045
11
-0.11
4
-7
Total SR
47.8%
6
36.9%
2
-4
Total DVOA
10.3%
10
-30.6%
3
-7
Chargers Offense vs. Jaguars Defense: 2021
Metric
Offense
Rank
Defense
Rank
Offense Edge
EPA per Play
0.088
5
0.111
31
26
Total SR
47.4%
5
47.0%
28
23
Total DVOA
16.0%
4
11.7%
31
27
Jaguars at Chargers: Quarterback Statistics
Data from RBs Don’t Matter, Pro Football Reference, ESPN and NFElo. Abbreviations: Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE), Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A), Adjusted Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), Quarterback Elo Value (QB Elo). 2022 data: Min. 32 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR. 2021 data: Min. 200 plays for EPA + CPOE & Air Yards. Min. 14 pass attempts per scheduled game for AY/A. Min. 20 action plays per game for QBR.
2022: Trevor Lawrence
EPA + CPOE: 0.185 (No. 4)
AY/A: 7.3 (No. 10)
QBR: 73.1 (No. 5)
ATS Value vs. Average: -0.8 (No. 24)
2021: Trevor Lawrence
EPA + CPOE: 0.009 (No. 35)
AY/A: 5.2 (No. 32)
QBR: 39.1 (No. 28)
ATS Value vs. Average: -2.5 (No. 44)
Career: Trevor Lawrence
AY/A: 5.4
QB Elo per Game: -58.4
2022: Justin Herbert
EPA + CPOE: 0.206 (No. 5)
AY/A: 8.4 (No. 6)
QBR: 70.6 (No. 8)
ATS Value vs. Average: 3.3 (No. 3)
2021: Justin Herbert
EPA + CPOE: 0.123 (No. 9)
AY/A: 7.6 (No. 10)
QBR: 70.9 (No. 3)
ATS Value vs. Average: 3.3 (No. 5)
Career: Justin Herbert
AY/A: 7.6
QB Elo per Game: 79.2
Key Matchup: EDGEs Joey Bosa & Khalil Mack vs. LT Cam Robinson & RT Jawaan Taylor
This offseason, the Jaguars took steps to fortify the interior of their offensive line by drafting C Luke Fortner and signing RG Brandon Scherff. With those moves, QB Trevor Lawrence has seen significant year-over-year improvement.
But they still have LT Cam Robinson and RT Jawaan Taylor as their offensive line bookends, and they’re average. As plenty of teams know, having average tackles is better than having nothing at all — but average play won’t be good enough against EDGEs Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. With those two leading the charge (#NailedIt), the Chargers defense is No. 7 with a 9.2% adjusted sack rate.
In our FantasyPros unit power rankings, the Chargers defensive line has a massive edge over the Jaguars offensive line, and that’s primarily because of Bosa and Mack, who already have six sacks this year.
Rank
Defensive Line
Opp OL
OL Rank
Edge
3
LAC
JAC
24
21
I expect to see Bosa and Mack combine for multiple sacks against the Jaguars.
Given that he got in a limited practice on Wednesday and has three extra days (from Thursday Night Football) to recover, I expect to Chargers QB Justin Herbert to play in Week 3.
#Chargers Justin Herbert – We’d estimate ~70% chance he plays, despite major pain. Numbing injection will probably help him a lot. Wouldn’t expect to see huge impact on his throwing, but don’t be surprised if he’s quick to throw it away to avoid big hits#FantasyFootball #NFL
— Deepak Chona, MD. SportsMedAnalytics (@SportMDAnalysis) September 21, 2022
And if he plays I think this line should be significantly higher. In the preseason, it was -10. In the lookahead market — before the Chargers played well against the Chiefs on TNF — it was -9.
The Jaguars’ 24-0 Week 2 over the Colts was impressive — but not enough to justify this move down to -7.
Best Line: Chargers -7 (-105, BetMGM)
First Recommended: Chargers -9 (-110)
Personal Projection: Chargers -9.5
Limit: Chargers -7.5
Week 2 Record
Picks in BettingPros tracker: 7-3-1 (+3.64 units)
Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 4-1
Year-to-Date Record
Picks in BettingPros tracker: 11-6-1 (+5.39 units)
Picks in $1M DraftKings picks pool: 7-3
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