The calendar has turned to August, NFL training camps are underway, and NFL sports betting sharps have spent the last few weeks analyzing the NFL schedule to find the best futures wagers. Here at BettingPros, our very own Matthew Freedman, Andrew Erickson, Derek Brown, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Joe Pisapia took a look at the NFL landscape and picked who they think will win each division.
In some divisions, such as the AFC East, NFC South, AFC South, and somewhat more surprisingly, NFC East, the analysts are in agreement on who they think will win the division. For others, they are split. For each pick, we provide a link to the sportsbook where you can find the best odds thanks to our BettingPros NFL Division Winner Odds page.
Let’s take a look at who our analysts believe will be the eight division winners in 2022.
AFC East
TEAM
Freedman
Erickson
DBro
Pat
Joe
Buffalo Bills
X
X
X
X
X
Miami Dolphins
New England Patriots
New York Jets
Matthew Freedman – Buffalo Bills (Best Odds: -200)
The Bills are the No. 1 team in my personal power ratings. QB Josh Allen is the MVP frontrunner at +700, and the defense last year was No. 1 with -0.111 expected points added per play (per RBSDM.com).
Andrew Erickson – Buffalo Bills (Best Odds: -200)
The Buffalo Bills are the most complete team in the AFC and should approach 13 wins this season. They went 6-1 versus divisional opponents last season, losing once to the Patriots in the bizarre windy weather conditions. Cash the ticket and move on.
Derek Brown – Buffalo Bills (Best Odds: -200)
The Bills are firmly in the limelight as one of the NFL’s premier franchises. Last year they were top ten in offensive and defensive DVOA (per Football Outsiders), and they arguably have an even better team headed into 2022. Buffalo sniffing 13-14 wins this year shouldn’t shock anyone.
Pat Fitzmaurice – Buffalo Bills (Best Odds: -200)
The Bills outscored their opponents 483-289 during the 2021 regular season and probably should have finished better than 11-6. The Jets and Dolphins are ascending, but it would be a surprise if anyone in the division finished within two games of Buffalo.
Joe Pisapia – Buffalo Bills (Best Odds: -200)
The best overall roster in the NFL.
AFC North
TEAM
Freedman
Erickson
DBro
Pat
Joe
Baltimore Ravens
X
X
X
Cincinnati Bengals
X
X
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
Matthew Freedman – Baltimore Ravens (Best Odds: +170)
The Bills are the No. 1 team in my personal power ratings. QB Josh Allen is the MVP frontrunner at +700, and the defense last year was No. 1 with -0.111 expected points added per play (per RBSDM.com).
Andrew Erickson – Baltimore Ravens (Best Odds: +170)
The Ravens averaged 11.6 wins in their previous three seasons and were ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball last year. With so much talent coming back from injury and from the 2022 NFL Draft, Baltimore at plus money to win the AFC North feels like stealing. Pittsburgh ain’t it with a rookie quarterback, and a Deshaun Watson suspension likely knocks Cleveland out of contention. Cincy is the real threat, but I’d bet Baltimore won’t be out-scored by 82-38 in their two matchups in 2022.
Derek Brown – Baltimore Ravens (Best Odds: +170)
Baltimore’s season fell apart last year due to injuries. Lamar Jackson missed significant time, and the defense was decimated. The Ravens averaged 11.6 wins per season over their previous three years. They can reclaim their perch atop the AFC North with a healthy and restocked roster.
Pat Fitzmaurice – Cincinnati Bengals (Best Odds: +190)
The Bengals have overwhelming offensive firepower. Cincinnati’s passing game is ruthlessly efficient and still improving, and the Bengals can run the ball, too — especially now that the offensive line has been upgraded. The defense is … good enough. The Ravens could challenge for the division crown if they can stay healthy, but the Bengals have to be considered the favorites.
Joe Pisapia – Cincinnati Bengals (Best Odds: +190)
In the end, just too explosive for the rest of the division and they fixed the O-Line enough. Underrated defense.
AFC South
TEAM
Freedman
Erickson
DBro
Pat
Joe
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
X
X
X
X
X
Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee Titans
Matthew Freedman – Indianapolis Colts (Best Odds: -115)
The Colts aren’t great, but at least they have a veteran quarterback (Matt Ryan) paired with a veteran head coach (Frank Reich). All the other AFC South teams I have power rated in the bottom half of the league (and the Jaguars and Texans specifically are in my bottom five).
Andrew Erickson – Indianapolis Colts (Best Odds: -115)
They were on the cusp of a playoff birth last season with Carson Wentz imploding towards the end of year. Matt Ryan at QB not only gets them back into the postseason, but the division crown as the Titans take a massive step back with so much overhaul across their roster.
Derek Brown – Indianapolis Colts (Best Odds: -115)
The Colts can take this division if Matt Ryan provides the massive quarterbacking upgrade this team has needed. The ground game (second in rush DVOA) and defense (eighth in DVOA per Football Outsiders) should again be solid. With the third-easiest projected strength of schedule (per Sharpfootballanalysis.com), the Colts can carve out double-digit wins in 2022.
Pat Fitzmaurice – Indianapolis Colts (Best Odds: -115)
Are the Colts a good team? I’m not sure. They’re a decent team at least, and decent is more than good enough to win this sickly division.
Joe Pisapia – Indianapolis Colts (Best Odds: -115)
Matt Ryan will have a small rebirth behind this O-Line and the Colts left last year on a very sour note. Time to clean the palate.
AFC West
TEAM
Freedman
Erickson
DBro
Pat
Joe
Denver Broncos
Kansas City Chiefs
X
X
Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers
X
X
X
Matthew Freedman – Kansas City Chiefs (Best Odds: +175)
As poorly as you might think QB Patrick Mahomes played last year, the Chiefs were still No. 1 in the league with a 53.3% dropback success rate. As long as the Chiefs have a healthy Mahomes and HC Andy Reid, they should be expected to their division.
Andrew Erickson – Los Angeles Chargers (Best Odds: +250)
I’m all-in on the Los Angeles Chargers. An elite defense paired with an offense heralded by MVP candidate Justin Herbert has me convinced they can run the table not just in the AFC West, but in the entire conference. Whichever team emerges from the AFC West will be battle-tested, and one that should be able to make a Super Bowl Run.
In the words of fearless leader Matthew Freedman, “The Chargers are one offensive lineman (Zion Johnson) one decent linebacker (Kenneth Murray, Kyle Van Noy), and one third-year quarterback leap from a Super Bowl.”
Derek Brown – Los Angeles Chargers (Best Odds: +250)
The Los Angeles Chargers will again field one of the best offenses in the NFL after ranking inside the top five in points scored and total yards last season. Their defense is the area they addressed this offseason that will put them over the top. With superstars Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson teaming with Joey Bosa and Derwin James, the Bolts are primed for a fantastic season.
Pat Fitzmaurice – Kansas City Chiefs (Best Odds: +175)
The Chiefs have won the AFC West in each of the last six seasons and have averaged 12 regular-season wins over that stretch. WR Tyreek Hill will be hard to replace, but the Chiefs had a phenomenal draft, loading up on defense and also adding a dynamic weapon in WR Skyy Moore. Kansas City is still the class of the division.
Joe Pisapia – Los Angeles Chargers (Best Odds: +250)
Love the offseason they had, great defensive additions and they have the QB to take them to the next level.
NFC East
TEAM
Freedman
Erickson
DBro
Pat
Joe
Dallas Cowboys
New York Giants
Philadelphia Eagles
X
X
X
X
X
Washington Commanders
Matthew Freedman – Philadelphia Eagles (Best Odds: +185)
Normally I think running the ball is a waste, but last year the Eagles were No. 1 with a 47.9% rush success rate, and QB Jalen Hurts is the kind of dual-threat player who can operate a run-heavy scheme ideally. With the addition of WR A.J. Brown, the third-year Hurts could develop more as a passer, and if that happens the Eagles could cause a lot of problems for opposing defenses.
Andrew Erickson – Philadelphia Eagles (Best Odds: +185)
Not only do the Eagles own the second-easiest schedule overall, but they also have the third easiest schedule to open the season through the first four weeks. They have surrounded Jalen Hurts with a plethora of weapons and their defense has made key additions. Dallas is their only legitimate threat in the NFC East, and they got worse this offseason.
Derek Brown – Philadelphia Eagles (Best Odds: +185)
The arrival of A.J. Brown, James Bradberry, and Hasson Reddick will improve the birds on both sides of the ball. Philadelphia still has a top-offensive line plowing the road and protecting Jalen Hurts. If all of the pieces gel this season, the Eagles will take the NFC East crown as a darkhorse Super Bowl contender.
Pat Fitzmaurice – Philadelphia Eagles (Best Odds: +185)
If the old axiom that football games are won in the trenches is true, the Eagles should win a lot of football games this year. Philadelphi has arguably the best offensive line in the league and a fierce defensive front four. The arrival of A.J. Brown should help the passing game, and James Bradberry helps shore up the Eagles’ perennially problematic CB position. The Eagles will stiff-arm the Cowboys for the division crown.
Joe Pisapia – Philadelphia Eagles (Best Odds: +185)
The Eagles had a nice draft and have enough to squeak out the division.
NFC North
TEAM
Freedman
Erickson
DBro
Pat
Joe
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
X
X
X
Minnesota Vikings
X
X
Matthew Freedman – Green Bay Packers (Best Odds: -165)
Over the past two seasons, back-to-back MVP QB Aaron Rodgers is No. 1 in composite expected points added and completion percentage over expectation (0.197, RBSDM.com). Even without WRs Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Rodgers should maintain a high level of efficiency, and the defense should be even better with the return of No. 1 CB Jaire Alexander (knee) and addition of first-round rookies LB Quay Walker and DT Devonte Wyatt.
Andrew Erickson – Minnesota Vikings (Best Odds: +300)
I expect this Minnesota Vikings offense to hit new heights under first-time head coach, Kevin O’ Connell. And the Packers’ question marks at WR in the absence of Davante Adams might be enough for them to come out of the NFC North on top. Sure won’t be the Bears.
Derek Brown – Green Bay Packers (Best Odds: -165)
Losing Davante Adams will sting, there’s no doubt about it, but the Packers’ overall roster still has them as the favorite to take the NFC North title. Quantifying Aaron Rodgers’ magic is difficult, but we still know it exists. With Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon in the backfield and a talented defense behind them, Rodgers won’t have to do it alone.
Pat Fitzmaurice – Green Bay Packers (Best Odds: -165)
Davante Adams’ departure leaves the Packers with a weak group of wide receivers, and stud offensive linemen David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins still haven;t fully recovered from knee injuries. But the Packers haven’t had a defense this good since Reggie White roamed Lambeau Field. The Packers have the best defensive backfield in football, aand edge rusher Rashan Gary has turned into a human wrecking ball. Green Bay will play a different style of football this year, but the Packers will maintain their stranglehold on the NFC North.
Joe Pisapia – Minnesota Vikings (Best Odds: +300)
It’s time for the loaded Vikings to make the most of a weakened Packers offense. The Vikes D is still suspect, but the offense is loaded with a better mind guiding it.
NFC South
TEAM
Freedman
Erickson
DBro
Pat
Joe
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
X
X
X
X
X
Matthew Freedman – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Best Odds: -290)
Last year, the Buccaneers were No. 1 with 0.143 EPA per play. QB Tom Brady is still winning his fight with time.
Andrew Erickson – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Best Odds: -290)
Tom Brady didn’t un-retire for fewer than 11 wins — a number he has hit in 14 of his 21 NFL seasons (67%) — or to lose out on winning the division. This team is all-in, and there’s a severe lack of elite teams in the NFC that present issues.
Derek Brown – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Best Odds: -290)
Ryan Jensen suffering a significant injury isn’t great, but this team still rides with the arm and intuition of Tom Brady. Brady still has ample weapons to sling the rock weekly with Julio Jones in town. Never count the GOAT out. I surely won’t.
Pat Fitzmaurice – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Best Odds: -290)
It’s tempting to pick the Saints to win the division. I just don’t know if New Orleans has enough talent on offense. The Bucs have taken some major hits on the offensive line, and the retirement of TE Rob Gronkowski hurts. I also don’t think it’s a slam dunk that Tom Brady continues to play at a high level at age 45. The Bucs still have a lot of talent, but this division could be an interesting two-team showdown.
Joe Pisapia – Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Best Odds: -290)
The 49ers have a terrific defensive front seven, and you ng QB Trey Lance is ticketed for stardom. The Rams will be fat and happy after earning Super Bowl rings, The Niners will ease past them to take the division crown.
NFC West
TEAM
Freedman
Erickson
DBro
Pat
Joe
Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Rams
X
X
X
X
San Francisco 49ers
X
Seattle Seahawks
Matthew Freedman – Los Angeles Rams (Best Odds: +135)
The Rams probably have three of the division’s five best players (QB Matthew Stafford, DT Aaron Donald, CB Jalen Ramsey) and maybe the best offensive schemer and situational play caller (HC Sean McVay).
Andrew Erickson – Los Angeles Rams (Best Odds: +135)
Rams are coming off a Super Bowl victory and there’s no reason to think they won’t get back there. San Fran has a major question mark at QB, Seattle is going to be a dumpster fire and the Cardinals have yet to put together a full season of above average play in the Kyler Murray/Kliff Kingsbury regime. L.A.’s retooled the roster to stay on top in the West in 2022.
Derek Brown – Los Angeles Rams (Best Odds: +135)
Breakfast, Brunch, or Brinner, it doesn’t matter. Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp will still eat from the same plate in 2022. With a fully healthy Cam Akers back to tote the rock and a possibly revitalized Allen Robinson, the Rams look restocked for another run in 2022.
Pat Fitzmaurice – San Francisco 49ers (Best Odds: +200)
The 49ers have a terrific defensive front seven, and you ng QB Trey Lance is ticketed for stardom. The Rams will be fat and happy after earning Super Bowl rings, The Niners will ease past them to take the division crown.
Joe Pisapia – Los Angeles Rams (Best Odds: +135)
They’re still the most complete team in the division with string leadership on both ends of the ball.
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The post Top NFL Division Winners Odds & Picks: BettingPros Staff Picks (2022) appeared first on BettingPros.
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